What will lift DIS share price?

[greykitedad]

If we believe the Pixar merger will put an inflection point in the DIS chart, when that will happen? Will it start with Cars, or is that already priced into the stock (just as we've always heard that argument before)? They do get ALL the profit this time.

What isn't priced in is Pixar's ability to turn Disney around. The shutdown and transfer of TS3 is the first indication we've seen of that, but I wonder if we'll need to see a lot more before the street believes in the promise. I think the first Disney animation hit to come from outside the walls of Pixar will have a big impact.

Anybody think DIS will start to rise with Cars?

Anybody think it will take longer than that?

[mac]

I would suppose that there would be some kind of impact because of the success of Cars and maybe as soon as next week depending on what/if there's buzz from this weekend's sneak peek.

I would expect a much longer wait though for proof that Pixar has exerted influence on a DIS animation since we're looking at 2-3 years at least for a "Pixar-guided" project. I imagine that they might be able to add some spit and polish to things already in the works but what if some of those things are too far along to make major changes to them? This could negatively affect the stock price more since it might be seen by Wall St. as "failure" of the Dis-Pixar pact (of course, unrealistiically expecting immediate results).

An an off note - I do expect ESPN to have a very strong Spring with March Madness just around the corner. It looks as though it's going to be a very interesting tourney this year with more teams "in the mix" than normal IMO.

My 2 cents,
Mac

[greykitedad]

I'm not familiar with ESPN, but that's probably a good venue for advertising "Cars".

I expect Jobs wanted some insight into DIS current quarter while negotiating the deal, so I'm hopeful we won't have a downside surprise Monday. Beyond that, I'm not sure how long it will take for any "Pixar effect" to be visible to the street. I think for the next year or two, pure Disney fundamentals (which got a little worse with the acquisition) will drive the stock price. If those don't look great, my mutual fund looks like a better place to park money for a while.

Over the long haul though, I expect good things from Disney.

[greykitedad]

As expected, Disney didn't disappoint and we're back near Pixar's all time high. The "sold out" revenues from China go into the next quarter and we've got anticipation building for Cars. So there's reduced pressure to find other places to invest.

[just_an_ant]

How about two Pixar films a year

Bloomberg.com reported on Disney's profit rise and Pixar's production slate is mentioned:
Iger said Disney would release about two Pixar films each year, an increase over Pixar's earlier goal of about one per year. Pixar will take over production of Toy Story 3, a sequel that Disney's in-house animators had been working on, Iger said.

No word if the previous Disney script has been completely scrapped or is being rewritten. An increase in Pixar films, with the Pixar folks in charge. Sounds like a good thing!

quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=ayU.muv60T4o&refer=home

[greykitedad]

Well, Disney was at about one film/year, and Pixar was just about there, so the two isn't such a surprise. Of course we can now expect that both of them will be full Pixar quality.

Fortunately Disney's fundamentals seemed to have pleased the street enough to give us "faithful" a little reward for our patience. I read today that Hollywood thinks they're going to have a better year. Cars and Pirates both figured promnently in the explantion for the optimism. The Chinese New Year's SRO crowds will show in next quarter's earnings. ESPN snagged a NASCAR contract (I think that's right), which could tie in well with "Cars".) I'm seeing enough upside to keep me from bailing.

I had a friend ask me if I'd heard the news that "The Toy Story director is taking over Disney". I feigned ignorance to get her take. She was thrilled, as the only Disney movies her family has enjoyed in the last decade were Pixar's. She'd heard he was going to fix the theme parks too and thought they might finally take the family to see what he's done.

There is just too much for Disney to lose if they don't make this merger work. I think it will work, and allow Jobs to keep his focus on Apple.

Meanwhile ANSW and SPWR are certainly wild enough, though TLAB has been rising nicely. I've been buying AAPL the last couple days. The Adobe delay concerns me, but not enough to stay away. I saw a Bosch "work radio" at Home Depot over the weekend. It comes with an iPod docking adapter

[tbstheman]

Ant

About 2 - 3 years ago, Pixar had a write-down between $30 - $50M. My guess was that it was production on TS3. We've heard all the rumors that Pixar had a TS3 script. Tim Allen was quoted as saying he'd seen the script and wanted to do the movie. So, I'm guessing, they could pump out the Pixar version of TS3 within 2 years. Time will tell.

Grey - expecting full Pixar quality out of the next 1 or 2 Disney releases would be overly-optimistic. Certainly the next release has to be near completion. Far too late for Pixar to be any type of major factor in that - unless it is delayed.

Disney performed slightly above my expectations this quarter. However, film dissapointed me. We'll see how DVD releases perform this quarter.

[greykitedad]

I don't expect to see Pixar's effect on movie quality for 3-4 years, the time it takes to make a movie. What I do expect to see is Pixar's immediate involvement in projects, and press releases (or leaks) to reveal that.

We've already heard about it in TS3, and will hear more as time goes on. You'll also hear more about what Lasseter is doing in the theme parks. Disney can't go quiet after the acquisition. Investors will want progress reports, and they'll get them.

I don't buy a stock based on whether it meets or exceeds my expectations. I don't have as much information as the analysts and large investors, nor does my opinion carry any weight anywhere. It was sufficient for me that Disney exceeded analyst's expectations, and I see reason to believe next quarter will not be disapointing either.

My primary reason for holding DIS through the CC was my belief that Jobs would not have settled on 2.3x if he knew DIS would take a beating at earnings. He saw the books. He knew the quarter was good and his $7B market cap wasn't in jeopardy.


As for TS3, staloren went through all the details some time ago. I believe DIS shopped out the script and it finally went to a young DIS animator. That was less than two years ago, so the writedown you mention was probably not for TS3. There may be a writedown in the next quarter for transferring TS3 to Pixar, though I expect it to be small as I suspect TS3 progress was hyped a bit for public posturing.

[hogsgotoslaughter]

I would expect any Disney share runup to start prior to the June release date for Cars. The toy sale potential of Cars has to be pretty large.
In addition, Ratatouille will release a year from June, and the buzz associated with that will start--prior to the SEC filing locking in its distribution with Disney, it was firmly under wraps.
So far Pixar is being dragged up with Disney.
With the head of Imagineering stepping aside, it does look like motion forward.
Grey, I must admit I am hoping the Pixar team can transform Disney, but I still have my doubts.

[mac]

Hey Hogs,
good to hear from you. Just wondering what you thought has been the catalyst for the recent run up? Like you, I'm still holding my breath on this one but am glad that I didn't let my emotions get the best of me bail immediately.

Cheers,
Mac

[dumbledor111]

This is getting stranger by the minute. Disney buys Pixar from Jobs. Jobs (AAPL) buys Disney?? Well to remain on-topic, if Apple made a bid for Disney, DIS share price would likely be lifted. But it has been on a pretty good upswing anyway, but ya'all know that.

BTW, nice to see some familiar and in my view, respected Yahoo posters migrating over.

Dumbledor