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AAPL
Jan 26, 2006 19:01:34 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Jan 26, 2006 19:01:34 GMT -5
Apple has retraced more than 15% in the last week. Tonight, Broadcom blew out earnings estimates (we all should have bought it today ;-). Broadcom is making parts for iPods. There have been unsubstantiated rumors that Intel Mac sales are slow, and a substianted rebuttal: appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1494I think there's been some concern that Jobs will take his eye off Apple as he plays with Disney. It's a valid concern, but not one I'm taking very seriously. So I may pick up a little more AAPL soon.
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AAPL
Jan 26, 2006 19:12:46 GMT -5
Post by iworkatpixar on Jan 26, 2006 19:12:46 GMT -5
I'm tempted myself to buy some more Apple; I got in at 36, then again at, hmn, 70 (added another 15% in share no to what I had). Only problem is that now Apple comprises about 20% of my liquid holdings, so it's scary to add more. But I'm soooo tempted, because I'm thinking that as a long term performer, it's just gonna be there for me. (I'm still patting myself on the back for suggesting it to Hogs at 60.) Hey, did you call that number I gave you?
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AAPL
Jan 30, 2006 22:15:43 GMT -5
Post by just_an_ant on Jan 30, 2006 22:15:43 GMT -5
Do you think Apple can double in five years?
If so..what's the next two year outlook versus the 3 after that. Is the iPod, iVideo looking to grow AAPL 25% plus next two years, followed by low double digit growth years 3-5?
For comparison purposes, I think DIS can double in 5 years. Along the percentages I mentioned above. I'm looking to diversify at some point a percentage of my Pixar holdings into other stocks since I won't have as good as handle on DIS as I did on PIXR alone.
Thanks
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AAPL
Jan 30, 2006 22:51:21 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Jan 30, 2006 22:51:21 GMT -5
Yes, I think AAPL can double in five years. It's done 6x in the last two and nearly 2x since my last major purchase in July (and 6% since my purchase Friday ;-)
The shift to Intel finally offers the promise that business workers can run Windows apps on a Mac with no performance penalty. At first it may be done via rebooting into Windows, but the real answer is something like VirtualPC or VM-Ware. I think that will bring a lot more "switchers" to the Mac.
Apple will move beyond the iPod to something that works in the living room. That will play seamlessly with everything else, and Apple gets one step closer to grabbing the living room. After watching Sony injure itself trying to balance content with hardware, I think Jobs will figure out the right way to do it. There will be hiccups along the way, but we're Pixar investors and we can handle that.
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AAPL
Feb 2, 2006 21:53:48 GMT -5
Post by hogsgotoslaughter on Feb 2, 2006 21:53:48 GMT -5
Iwork, you and Grey should pat yourselves on the back, and I'll pat as well. You folks finally persuaded me to jump in. Made out pretty well. Still unsure on the Pixar deal. Apple looks good going forward. Wish I knew what their next project is likely to be--still like uwb. Thanks for the link you posted awhile back, grey. Thanks again for the persuasion. Wish Ipods were a tad more profitable per unit though.
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AAPL
Feb 2, 2006 22:36:53 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Feb 2, 2006 22:36:53 GMT -5
We may have a little bumpiness coming up. Adobe announced they'll be tardy porting their applications to Intel. Rather than making Universal Binaries of the current versions, they'll wait until the next upgrade cycle. The concern is that this will depress professional Mac sales a bit.
Of course, whether that's true or not doesn't matter as much as whether the market wants to worry about it, even though the transition started fully six months early.
Hopefully we'll have some new product announcements from the iPod division to distract everyone.
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AAPL
Feb 2, 2006 22:51:53 GMT -5
Post by just_an_ant on Feb 2, 2006 22:51:53 GMT -5
Salute to Pixarian Major Grey.
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AAPL
Feb 3, 2006 8:19:01 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Feb 3, 2006 8:19:01 GMT -5
Once I make 4 star general, do I get sent stateside?
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AAPL
Feb 7, 2006 9:54:21 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Feb 7, 2006 9:54:21 GMT -5
Well, we just hit one of the bumps I mentioned, and although the press can't seem to find a reason for the selloff, other than "general worries", I think the Adobe announcement is lurking in the background.
But new products were announced today, and that usually lifts the stock. But what I found most interesting today was Apple's announcement of a "Countdown to a Billion" songs on iTunes. In Pixar discussions we've often heard that Jobs "isn't in it for the money". Well, Apple's grand prize for the iTunes countdown embodies that idea very well. Here's what you get if you purchase the billionth tune from the iTunes Music Store:
An iMac Nothing special about that.
10 iPods You can't use them all yourself can you? So Apple is hoping you'll give them to family and friends. Better to give than to receive?
A full, four year scholarship for SOMEONE ELSE at a prestigious music school, given in the winner's name. In case you had any doubt about whether giving is better than receiving, Apple's making sure you give.
This has Jobs' imprint all over it, don't you think? He may be an idealistic pain in the ass, but he's got a vision (and that vision includes making money) and he's sticking to it. This is what keeps me invested in his efforts.
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AAPL
Feb 9, 2006 2:00:16 GMT -5
Post by tbstheman on Feb 9, 2006 2:00:16 GMT -5
I could go into several conspiracy theories about AAPLs sell-off, but I feel it;s extremely short term. Look at last year about this time. Shortly after the split, massive speculation about the Ipod's continued growth and such. All crap if you eally looked at the numbers. And look how AAPL performed from June - Dec of '05.
AAPL is well positioned gowing forward. They have a far brighter immediate future than Disney. I am considering swapping some Pixar for AAPL at these (AAPL) discounted prices.
I've looked, but can't find anything that gives the shareholder vote date. Has anyone seen that? Shareholders of record on mm/dd/yyyy date will vote for the deal?
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AAPL
Feb 9, 2006 8:27:33 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Feb 9, 2006 8:27:33 GMT -5
I'm not a conspiracy theorist. They're far too hard to pull off. AAPL ran up too far, too fast and people were looking for something to worry about. Adobe, and the rumor of soft iMac sales provided enough. But that's short term worry creating a short term opportunity. I've been buying all week.
I'm seeing iPod docks built into too many things to think the iPod is going to be knocked off its perch anytime soon. This is Apple's ball game to lose.
As for the merger vote, they haven't set a date yet. There will be a press release and proxy mailing when they do.
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AAPL
Feb 13, 2006 9:19:03 GMT -5
Post by iworkatpixar on Feb 13, 2006 9:19:03 GMT -5
So you're thinking that APPL is still a good buy up in the $60's? I'm trying to decide if I should dip my toe in further, considering the recent slide...
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AAPL
Feb 13, 2006 10:19:24 GMT -5
Post by greykitedad on Feb 13, 2006 10:19:24 GMT -5
It's a better buy than it was in the 80's I could be wrong (it's happened before), but I think the perception of Apple's vulnerability is ahead of the actuality. Microsoft is gunning for iPod/iTunes, but won't make headway until they can guarantee as seamless an experience. All iPods (except the shuffles) have the same docking connector on the bottom. This has spawned an aftermarket economy that's larger than the rest of the MP3 player industry. I think I mentioned in some post here that Bosch makes a rugged "contractor's radio" for construction sites. It comes with an iPod dock. So do many new cars. That docking connector is the root of tentacles which must now be cut by a competitor before significant damage can be done to the iPod. Which competitor has released products for four years, all capable of dropping into the same socket? The competition can't compete well on price, as Apple has the advantage of volume. They can't compete well on innovation, Apple is the undisputed leader there. They can't compete well on seamlessness of experience. What can they compete on? Well, they can sell to Windows Media cultists. I think there are three of those. I'm not sure what angle the competition can pitch to gain converts. They are working feverishly on it though, so I don't count them out, just behind. This year could have more bumps if sales figures for the pro-level Macs plummet on delays in Adobe and other professional software. There is some sign that's happening, but if Apple introduces new entertainment products and low end computers (in time for the school purchase season) to fill the gap, the eventual arrival of pro-level apps will be icing on the cake. I don't know what will move the stock price more in coming months, announcement of new products, or earnings. This may not be the bottom for AAPL, but it's not the top either. It would be an amazing reversal of fortune for $86.40/share to be the highest Apple ever sees. That said, there is plenty of short term opportunity to lose money in AAPL. The next earnings might not keep the street happy. We may have to wait for July's big conference, Adobe to ship Photoshop for Intel Macs and pundits to say that Apple's home entertainment center (if they announce one) to be a sure fire Xmas 2006 hit.
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AAPL
Feb 13, 2006 21:08:26 GMT -5
Post by just_an_ant on Feb 13, 2006 21:08:26 GMT -5
a one for one swap of Pixar for Apple interests me.
saw more news on lawsuit (screen scratching, etc.) tonight and wonder if AAPL could go below 60?
not pulled the tigger, think we could see more "pressure on the stock", which I would entertain as an opportunity to grab a little to diversify away from my large Pixar (Disney) holding.
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AAPL
Feb 17, 2006 2:02:04 GMT -5
Post by tbstheman on Feb 17, 2006 2:02:04 GMT -5
ant / grey
Here's a little (conspiracy) theory. You mentioned the screen scratching lawsuit. I've seen 4 highly publiciized articles about journalists with bad I-pod experiences. How many articles have you read about potential sales drop-offs, etc?
Now, take a look at Goldman Sachs. See any negative articles about them? About all the negatives? No, well here are some:
2002: GS paid $1.65 million in fines for allegedly violating e-mail record keeping requirements. 2003: GS fined $ 110 million as their share of the $ 1.4 billion fine levied against a dozen Wall Street firms. They was accused of having swindled millions of small investors with biased financial statements destined to obtaining contracts with the large financial firms. 2003: GS agrees to pay $ 4.3 million in restitution and a $ 5 million penalty related to improper trading in US Treasury Securities and futures. 2004: GS fined $ 2 million for promoting an IPO before the IPO registration became effective. This involved several Asian issuers. 2004: GS fined $ 45.3 million for trading ahead of customers. 2005: GS Execution & Clearing LP was fined $ 1 million by NASD for hiding IPO allocations from the Depository Trust. 2005: GS fined $ 125,000 for sales of restricted securities in violation of lock-up agreement. 2005: GS fined $ 40 million for IPO laddering. The other half of the $ 80 million fine was paid by Morgan Stanley. 2005: GS purchases Zilkha Renewable Energy, a Houston based wind-energy development company. The WSJ reports GS had recently purchased 30 electricity-generating plants. GS analysts forecast oil prices to reach $ 105.00 a barrell. China Aviation Oil Singapore files suit against GS in relation to the loss by China Aviation Oil of $530 million in options trading deals (derivatives). Indonesia fines GS $ 15.76 million for colluding with Indonesia's state oil company, Pertamina, to ensure Frontline buys two supertankers for as much as $56 million below the market price in July 2004 (according to the Indonesia's anti-monopoly agency). GS is appealing the fine.
And there's more. Where is the incessant coverage from the press?
Wall St would like everyone to believe that stocks trade on fundamentals that boil down to P/E. That is only partially true. The stock market is an auction market. Supply and demand drive the market. It is GENERALLY true that a stock with quality fundamentals will command a higher P/E.
Not always, though. Speculative stocks could have a high demand, etc, etc..
But, back to AAPL. ant / grey you make excellent points about AAPLs new market. Ipods are HOT! The I-Tunes store is the biggest right now. Microsoft can't play there. Microsoft loses money on every XBox sold. The record companies might cut a deal with Microsoft if Microsoft gives them the whole .99 per song, but everyone would still use I-Tunes.
I am definitely buying more AAPL as soon as my new trading account is set up. I'll buy on down days.
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